Introduction to Comoros

Comoros is a country in the southwestern region of the Indian Ocean located between the southeastern coast of Africa and Madagascar. It is known as an archipelago composed of 3 islands: Grande Comore, Mohéli, and Anjouan. Its population is 1 and is about 70% rural.2 Poverty is a major factor as its estimated 39.8%3 individuals live below the poverty line and the life expectancy is only 63, less than the average of Africa as a whole. Moreover, Comoros has a tropical climate with a range of 1,000 to 5,000 mm of rainfall per year depending on topography. The western regions of the islands tend to be more exposed to monsoons, leading to greater rainfall averages in these areas of the islands.4 In terms of its GDP, agriculture accounts for 47.7% of its composition, services for 40.5%, and industry for 11.8%.5 Within that, remittances account for around 13% of annual GDP over the past decade.6 Comoros’s labor force contains 80%7 held within the agriculture sector. Comoros is known for its perfume essence exports as its main crops consist of a narrow array of vanilla, cloves, and ylang ylang, while the country’s food and fuel are largely imported.8 Historically, Comoros is a newly formed economy relative to neighboring countries as it only gained independence from France in 1975 and since then, has experienced over 20 coup attempts, prolonging economic and political instability.5 Because it is highly reliant on export agriculture and international imports, and because of ongoing economic and political instability, Comoros is highly vulnerable to climate-related disasters or international price shocks.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Not only is Comoros highly vulnerable to climate-related shocks as well as other external affairs, the country severely lacks coping capabilities to adapt to these changes. For example, Comoros ranks 94 out 191 countries on the 2024 Risk Inform Index and ranks 15 out of 191 countries in terms of lack of coping capacity to climate events.9 Comoros is an extremely densely populated country averaging 465 residents per km2, and due to the islands’ topography, 54.2% of residents reside in at-risk areas.10 Between 2012 and 2022, 5 disaster events occurred totalling 42,000 internal displacements.11 For example, in 2014, Comoros experienced heavy rainfall, flooding, landslides, and a subsequent cyclone known as Cyclone Helen that displaced over 1,995 individuals from Mahale village, damaged 18 villages on the Anjouan island, led to severe destruction in Moheli island of 457 households in terms of their homes and crops, and affected more than 6,788 individuals.12 The most recent Cyclone Kenneth in 2019 led to the most displacements. The cyclone  caused severe rainfall, flooding, and damage leading to around 20,000 individual displacements, 3,818 homes destroyed, 96 water tanks in desolate condition, and 465 schools damaged.13  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

The GDP of Comoros is $1.24 billion USD,14  with an estimated 0.39% average GDP lost between 1980 to 2017 due to climate disasters.15 For example, April of 2012 saw Comoros experiencing severe torrential rain of 1,738 mm, a number associated with 72% of the yearly national rainfall average calculated between 1971 and 2000. This flooding not only affected around 65,000 individuals, but led to over $20 million USD worth of damage across all sectors of the economy.16 Such impacts are felt unevenly across economic sectors. For example, Cyclone Kenneth, in 2019, not only led to massive displacement, but ruined over 80% of crops which was later linked with severe food shortages as well as inflation of food prices, further exacerbating the food insecurity in the region.13 Long term economic impacts put such industries at risk too. For example, by 2050, if Comoros experiences just a 20 cm increase in sea level rise, its expected 734 ha of agricultural land will be lost and 10% of the population will be displaced.17 Additionally, the fishing and ecotourism industry are at risk due to the intensification of coral bleaching.18 In total, it was estimated that by 2050, Comoros could see a total cost of $836 million USD or $23 million USD average annually due to climate-related effects.15

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Although Comoros only contributes less than <0.1% of global emissions, Comoros has committed to a 23% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the Paris Agreement Business as Usual Scenario. Moreover, Comoros has committed to sustainable agricultural and livestock policy, expansion of national protected areas to preserve biodiversity, monitoring and restoration programs for coastal ecosystems, and improving water infrastructure. In terms of expansion of national protected areas, in 2015, through partnership with the UNDP, GEF, and Government of France, 5 new sites were added to the national protected area system. This included North Ngazidja National Park representing 2,500 ha of coastal habitat, Coelacanth National Park with 9,300 ha of newly protected seascape, and Shisiwani National Park incorporating 6,500 ha of coastal marsh and mangrove forest land.19 In terms of improving water infrastructure and accessibility, Comoros has also made significant progress towards these goals through a partnership with the United Nations Development Programme. With $60 million USD of funding, they are building improved water management systems in 32 watersheds across the country and increasing resilience of water supply facilities to operate on a year-round basis. This project aligns with Comoros’s goals within the Comoros’ Accelerated Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy to increase capacity of its water supply to be accessible to 100% of residents and farmers.20 Comoros has also made significant goals to develop effective strategies to reduce the impact and prevalence of emerging diseases such as Malaria. In terms of climate migration preventative strategies, in partnership with the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative, the country has taken significant steps to improve upon early warning capacities of alert systems in terms of reliability, accessibility, and efficiency through the utilization of a $4 million USD grant. Overall, in order to accomplish its NDC commitments, Comoros will require $1.3 billion USD of funding.

Necessary Changes

Comoros has already made significant commitments to reduce its emissions, expand its protected national park system, increase water resilience as well as capacity, improve upon its early warning systems, and much more. However, as said before, Comoros ranks high in its lack of coping capacity, especially due to the fact that around 40% of its population is below the poverty line. Moreover, foreign direct investment (FDI) has only averaged 0.6% of annual GDP between 2011 and 2020 and private investment represented an average of 8% of GDP annually.21 With a history of lack of investment as well as a large sum of $1.3 billion USD needed to meet its environmental goals, it remains necessary for the international community to commit to financial assistance to alleviate the lack of financial resources for climate adaptive strategies within Comoros. On the national level, Comoros, in its work towards a sustainable transition, should diversify its economy not only within the agricultural sector, but within developing industries such as its tourism and fisheries sectors. It is important for the country to promote local industry in order to alleviate the dependency of international imports and meet the food as well as other needs of its residents. At the same time, in order to accomplish a just transition, it is necessary for Comoros to further democratize as well as stabilize its economic system to prioritize the successful participation of its front-line labor force in the decision-making process. Through a just transition, this will ensure that Comoros's efforts to implement climate adaptation and mitigation initiatives are equitably fulfilled.