Introduction to China

China, located in east Asia, is the world’s second largest country by population.1 It is the worlds second largest economy and in 2005 surpassed the United States as the largest annual contributer to global carbon emissions.2 Out of its population of 1.4 billion people, 60.3% live in urban regions, where rapid development has occurred without adequate disaster mitigation measures, putting these populations at risk in the event of climate change induced impacts. Currently, China is vulnerable to storms, droughts, floods, land subsidence, and landslides. Cyclones are also present, occurring in southern regions and increasing in intensity and frequency in the east, compounding the issue of flooding. These disasters tend to impact agriculture, and with 27.7% of the labor force employed in the agricultural industry, these climate events put many livelihoods and China’s economy under strain.3

Mapping Climate Events & Climate-Induced Displacement

China is vulnerable to the effects of climate change and is ranked 39 in the ND-GAIN Country Index.4 Currently, China has approximately 942,000 internally displaced persons due to climate events, which were primarily seasonal flooding and monsoons in the southeast of the country.5 Flooding impacts approximtely 6.2 million Chinese residents each year and the figure is expected to rise to 7.5 million by 2030.6 For example, in July of 2018 flooding affected 1.38 million people and displaced 222,000 in North Central Sichuan.7 Eastern China is also frequently affected by drought. From August 12th to October 28th of 2019, average rainfall in the Anhui province was 60% lower than normal levels, impacting over 1 million residents and 400,000 hectares of crops.8  

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

China’s GDP is $17.77 trillion and the GDP per capita is $12,556.9 China has fueled its high economic growth based on investment, low-cost manufacturing and exports; however this has led to economic, social, and environmental imbalances. Therefore, China is attempting to shift its economy from manufacturing to high value services, from investment to consumption, and from high to low carbon intensity. Annually, China faces approximately $76 billion in damages caused by climate change induced disasters and costs of flood damages alone are expected to double by 2030 (as compared to 2010 figures).10 Since 2014, approximately $2.75 billion has been spent by the central government in order to improve disaster warning technologies as an avenue for adaptation. In 2019 alone, China invested approximately $72 billion in clean energy, furthering its progress towards carbon neutrality.11

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

China has committed to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060 in its NDC. China intends to mitigate current challenges by  increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%, increasing the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level, and to bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030. For example, the country has already begun rolling out a carbon emission trading scheme in several provinces to cap carbon emissions. China intends to adapt to climate change by taking into account climate change in urban planning, improving early warning systems, improving infrastructure resilience, protecting water resources and natural ecosystems, and improving public health.12  

Necessary Changes

China already has a clear action plan to reduce its emissions and transition to clean technology. Now, it is necessary for the country and international community to ensure that it maintains and expands its climate goals and that the implementation, efficacy, and funding of planned projects and future strategies remain transparent. Developing an international consensus on climate mitigation and adaptation initiatives requires the cooperation of major economies such as China. Therefore, the international community must engage in dialogue and increase cooperation with China based on a commitment to mitigating climate change. Internationally backed adaptation and mitigation efforts should support the work already being done on the ground to ensure that affected workers’ voices are amplified in the process of just transition, and also help bolster the participation of directly impacted local communities in decision-making. Through this collaborative approach of capacity building for climate action, China’s progress in reducing carbon emmissions can be sustained and expanded.